PLAN TO BUY AN XBOX? OR WHAT'S BEHIND THE CURTAIN

Just four months from now, video gamers aching to upgrade to a next-generation console should be able to shell out 300 bucks or so for a Microsoft Xbox 360. Or they can wait a few more months and make a more informed decision once they see what Sony's PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Nintendo's Revolution have to offer.

For a gamer champing at the bit, it's a tough decision, sort of like playing the real-world version of "Let's Make A Deal" -- "Do I take the first console on the market ... or wait to see what's behind the curtains?"

True to form, the three hardware manufacturers aren't much help. They release details about their upcoming consoles in dribs and drabs, and play coy when anyone attempts to extract additional information. As a Nintendo spokesperson put it: "We have a schedule for releasing information. If you announce everything at once -- and the product doesn't come out for a year -- you've wasted a lot of opportunity. Besides, it's a lot more exciting to hear a little bit and then a little bit more; it builds excitement."

Perhaps. But because the three consoles won't be unveiled at the same time, comparing the three will be a neat trick. And so, we've gathered up every bit of useful, not-too-technical information released so far ... and then searched the Web for additional "intelligent speculation" that hasn't been officially confirmed. The result is this two-part report on everything you need to know about the three next-generation video game consoles. "Everything," at least, until the next round of details emerges.

Comparing nuts and bolts

First out of the gate, around Thanksgiving, will be the Xbox 360, which Microsoft claims will "usher in the era of high-definition (HD) gaming" -- despite the fact that, at first, HD gaming won't be available on the 360. The company is evaluating whether it will use the HD DVD format sometime in the future but, initially, the plan is to stick with the tried-and-true standard 12X dual-layer DVD format. All games will reportedly play in 16:9 widescreen with resolutions of 720p and 1080i plus 5.1 Dolby Digital surround sound.

Meanwhile, Sony's PS3 has adopted the new Blu-ray disc format, which can store as much as 53 gigabytes of data compared with 30 GB for HD DVD and 8.5 GB for standard DVD. Blu- ray is said to yield sharper images and can use the extra capacity for HD recording. The PS3 will also be compatible with current DVD and CD media.

Under the hood, the Xbox 360 is packed with three custom IBM PowerPC-based CPUs, a 500-MHz ATI graphics processor, and 512 megabytes (MB) of memory. The Xbox 360 supports up to four 2.4-GHz wireless controllers with an optional cable so they can be recharged while playing. The console is said to ship with a detachable and upgradeable 20-GB Seagate LD25 2.5-in. hard drive for downloading new game levels, maps, music, and more. This compares with the PS3's 2.5-in. drive which, word has it, may be as large as 80 gigabytes but will be sold separately much like the hard drive for the PlayStation 2 which requires gamers to buy "save game" add-ons.

The PS3's engine is known as Cell, a single processor developed jointly by IBM, Sony, and Toshiba. It is accompanied by an NVIDIA RSX graphics processor. Word on the street is that the PS3 will perform at 2.18 teraflops, almost twice the processing power of the Xbox 360. Memory, while configured differently from the Xbox 360, will total the same 512 MB of RAM. As with the Xbox 360, there will be wireless controllers and the system is said to support up to seven of them using Bluetooth technology for connectivity. Games will play at resolutions of 480i, 480p, 720p, 1080i, and 1080p with Dolby 5.1 surround sound.

Of the three consoles, least is known about Nintendo's Revolution. It contains 512 MB of internal flash memory that can be expanded with an SD memory card. The storage can be used to house downloads from the over 20 years of Nintendo 64, SNES, and NES classic games which will be available. Like the Xbox 360, Revolution utilizes the DVD format; its drive recognizes both the Revolution's 6-GB, 12-cm optical discs as well as smaller 8-cm GameCube discs.

The console, which Nintendo describes as being the size of three standard DVD cases stacked together, is expected to offer two or three times the power of the current GameCube console, far less impressive than the specs being quoted for the Xbox 360 and PS3.

Nintendo has confirmed that, as with the Xbox 360, HD will not be initially supported.

Nintendo is known for its creative controllers and boasts that the Revolution's wireless controllers will be, well, revolutionary. But nothing else is known about them, mainly because the company is still tinkering with the design in an attempt not to make them overly complex.

But what's it gonna cost?

Practically everything in life goes up in price -- except for technology. Five years ago, in October 2000, when the PlayStation 2 launched in the U.S., the MSRP was $300, exactly the same as the MSRP for the original PlayStation five years earlier.

"I don't see the price of the PS3 being materially different from the prior system launches," says Edward Williams, industry analyst and managing director of Manhattan-based Harris Nesbitt. Similarly, he says, the Xbox 360 will sell for $299 just as the Xbox did in November 2001. "That's the case even though the PS3 has more features in it than the Xbox 360 and is more expensive to build. There's a $300 price point in the U.S. for game consoles that's hard to shake. Nintendo's Revolution, however, will be less than its two rivals," he added, just as the previous Nintendo GameCube sold for $199 when it launched in November 2001.

A Nintendo spokesperson noted that the Revolution may be priced lower than the competition because it won't contain all the extras "that gamers don't necessarily want." He wouldn't elaborate.

There are reports that, because of the pricey Cell processor and Blu- ray drive (which may cost as much as twice the price of a DVD drive), the PS3 will cost Sony $500 to build, causing the company to suffer a loss of more than $1 billion during the first year of the PS 3's release, according to Merrill Lynch Japan, which predicts the PS 3 will sell for $399 -- or $100 more than the Xbox 360.

Other reports have the Xbox 360 being subsidized by Microsoft to the tune of $75 so that the console can hit its $300 price target. This would not be unusual since game companies typically adopt a "razor blade mentality," making money on the software, not the hardware.

"People say that if you can sell the PlayStation Portable (PSP) for $250, you should be able to sell a new console for $400," notes Williams. "But there's a $300 psychological hurdle you need to clear and that isn't easy. At the end of the day, Microsoft will set the price and the others will decide to match it or go above or below it. But the first price being set will be Microsoft's."

Timing is everything

Regardless of price, perhaps more important is when will the consoles launch and will there be enough supply on store shelves for consumers to find them. Or will gamers see a repeat of the 2000 debacle when they "needed to know someone" if they wanted to get their hands on a PS2 in time for Christmas.

All signs point to the Xbox 360 hitting U.S. store shelves around Thanksgiving, giving it a four-month jump or more on the PS3 which Sony says is coming out "in spring 2006."

This was no accident, says Harris Nesbitt's Williams, who notes that "launching first has been a corporate mantra of Microsoft's."

"Microsoft believes that the major reason why the Xbox didn't sell more units than it did relative to the PS2 was that Sony came out a year ahead of the Xbox," he says. "And I believe that Microsoft has had it in its corporate mind that it would simply not let Sony launch ahead of them."

According to Microsoft corporate vp Peter Moore, the company plans to take advantage of that early release, intending to sell 10 million Xbox 360s within 12-16 months of launch.

On a global basis, Sony has sold approximately over 90 million PS2s since its 2000 launch while Microsoft has sold slightly more than one-fifth of that -- or 20 million -- since its 2001 launch.

Nintendo, which has sold approximately 18.5 million GameCubes since 2001, has said simply that the Revolution will be out in 2006. According to a spokesperson, that could be before the PS3 launch or after.

"I believe that Sony's launch date is tied to the technology," says Williams. "I mean, there's a lot of new technology in the Cell processor and the Blu-ray drive, and you can't launch before that technology is ready. Nintendo's decision, on the other hand, is the one that's most tied to what the competitors are up to. I expect the Revolution will come out at just about the same time as the PS3 or slightly thereafter."

Determining demand is a black art, not a science, and all three hardware makers have struggled with it in the past. For example, there were shortages when the PS2 came out in 2000 and then again last year when a new, slimmed-down version of the PS2 came out during the year-end holiday season. The familiar cry of "consumer demand has exceeded our expectations" was the explanation given by a Sony spokesperson.

"While none of the makers wants to leave the market too short," says Williams, "if they under ship by, say, just 50,000 units or so, it gets that nice buzz going. That's when the newspapers start saying that the console is in such demand that you can't get a hold of one. That's the kind of publicity you want."

But a Nintendo spokesperson says the company would much rather make all the sales it can. "Our intent is to release as many systems at launch as possible. However, while we want to feed the demand," she notes, "unfortunately you don't know what that demand is until you're on the store shelves."